Climate Change is Threatening Air Quality across the Country

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Research brief by Climate Central

As summers heat up, the air we breathe is increasingly at risk of becoming unhealthy, despite decades of air quality improvements.

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Hotter summers come with an increase in ”—stationary domes of hot air that can cause air pollutants to get trapped and persist in the lower atmosphere. Climate Central between summer maximum temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days in 98% of the contiguous U.S. cities analyzed. Further, the data showed that stagnation events are becoming more prevalent, with the number of annual stagnant days increasing in 83% of the cities. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划These stagnant days set up the perfect conditions for ground-level ozone, a dangerous air pollutant, to develop. “Ozone season,” the period when states and communities monitor local air quality for unhealthy levels of ozone, is now year-long in eight states and in dozens of urban areas across the country. 

Looking at ozone levels in 244 locations, Climate Central identified 54 cities with an “ozone problem,” defined as either having a high number of unhealthy ozone days or experiencing a recent increase in unhealthy ozone days, potentially posing a threat to the long-term trend of air quality improvement. 

Exposure to high levels of ozone has long been known to have serious health consequences, especially for children, the elderly, people with cardiovascular or lung diseases, and for those who work outside. Recent research also shows that can be hazardous for anyone spending time outdoors. As our climate heats up, increasing numbers of the U.S. population could be exposed to unhealthy ozone days, leading to more

Ozone: The Good, the Bad, the Dirty 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划High-altitude ozone is a gas made up of three oxygen atoms that forms naturally in the upper atmosphere. This is essential to our existence, protecting our planet from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun, like a benevolent layer of SPF for the Earth. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划Ground-level ozone is chemically equivalent to high-altitude ozone, but is not formed naturally. Rather, it is a byproduct of two pollutants (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) that react in the presence of heat and sunlight. Emissions from chemical and industrial plants, electric utilities, refineries, exhaust from cars and trucks, and increasingly and are sources of these pollutants. Ground-level ozone doesn’t rise into the stratosphere, but builds up at the Earth’s surface where we live and breathe. Ozone is colorless on its own—an invisible pollutant—although it has a and is a primary component of smog. A slow-moving high pressure system, with no wind or rain to wash the pollution away, can contribute to increased concentrations of ground-level ozone that not only make it uncomfortable to breathe, but can be unhealthy or even dangerous for including children, the elderly, and people with asthma or other lung diseases.

Urban areas tend to be most impacted by ground-level ozone, but winds can transport ozone hundreds of miles away to rural regions as well. Both the formation and transport of ozone are greatly influenced by weather conditions and topography. 

Millions of Americans Live in Areas With an “Ozone Problem”

Using county-level data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Climate Central looked at the annual number of unhealthy ozone days—those exceeding the current EPA standard —for 244 U.S. cities since 2000. We studied the average annual number of unhealthy ozone days over the period 2000 to 2014, as well as for each of the past four years. This 19-year timeframe allowed us to observe the historical average of unhealthy ozone days in the wake of emission controls implemented to meet requirements of the of 1970, as well as during the last four years when episodes of high heat occurred. 

Overwhelmingly, the data showed that air quality has improved in most cities since the early part of this century. Yet 40 cities had at least 20 unhealthy ozone days since 2015—including four cities that had more than 300. Another 14 cities had fewer unhealthy days overall, but experienced an uptick in unhealthy ozone days in recent years, a potential sign that progress is stagnating or slowing. 

And while the United States overall experienced a in unhealthy ozone levels since 2000, there are with national air quality standards for ozone. As the climate continues to warm, bringing hot and sunny conditions that create more ground-level ozone,

Highlights of Cities with Ozone Problems

WEST AND SOUTHWEST 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划TheThe high ozone levels could result from several interacting factors, including but not limited to higher temperatures, topography, increased emissions of ozone-forming chemicals from , high levels of automobile emissions, and an increase in gas and oil extraction operations. 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划California has some of the worst air quality in the nation. Palm Springs had the highest 2000-2014 average of 130 unhealthy ozone days per year and also had 450 days occur since the start of 2015. Los Angeles experienced 103 unhealthy days per year on average from 2000-2014, but recently saw unhealthy days happen even more frequently, with 107 days in 2015 and 104 days in 2017.

  • Oil and gas extraction is likely having an effect on increased ozone levels in Colorado, according to a . Denver’s ozone levels improved down to 0 unhealthy days in 2017, but spiked back up to 7 days in 2018, which was higher than the average during the 2000-2014 period. Colorado Springs similarly saw an increase to 7 days in 2018 from just 1 unhealthy ozone day in 2015.

  • In Nevada, increased unhealthy ozone days last year. Las Vegas’ average of about 45 days a year of unhealthy ozone between 2000 and 2014 was nearly cut in half from 2015 to 2017. But last year the unhealthy days skyrocketed back to 46. Reno also had an unhealthy 2018, with nearly 20 high ozone days, compared to an average of about 7 from 2000-2014.

  • Houston has the worst ozone record in Texas, with an average of 46 annual unhealthy days from 2000-2014 and 97 days total over the last 4 years. Dallas saw a drop to just 3 unhealthy days in 2016 compared to 31 days on average in the 2000-2014 period—but the number of unhealthy days rose to 7 in 2017 and 14 in 2018. El Paso had 14 unhealthy days in 2018, nearing its average of 18 days from 2000-2014. Austin recorded a similar pattern, with just 1 unhealthy ozone day in 2016, down from 14 on average, but an increase to 3 in 2017 and 6 days in 2018.

  • Phoenix, which was the nation’s , averaged 37 unhealthy ozone days over the last 4 years, and had an average of 55 per year from 2000-2014.

  • Salt Lake City had significantly more unhealthy ozone days in 2017 and 2018 than on average during the 2000-2014 period. Last year, Salt Lake City had 31 unhealthy ozone days compared to an average of about 22 per year in 2000-2014. A number of factors may be contributing, including and its bowl-like topography which can act as a trap for pollutants. 

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Our analysis shows that a number of cities in the Pacific Northwest have an ozone problem. Despite their relatively few unhealthy ozone days, such days have increased over the last few years. Overall, the region —the only NOAA/NCEI region that did not improve during that time period. 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划In 2017, Seattle had 12 days of unhealthy ozone—a year in which the —and 6 days in 2018. This is an increase from about 4 days on average between 2000 and 2014.

  • Portland, Oregon had just 2 unhealthy ozone days in each of the last 2 years, but this is up from about a half day on average per year from 2000-2014. Similarly, Medford, Oregon went from fewer than 2 days per year from 2000 to 2014 to 6 days in 2018. 

MIDWEST

免费幸运飞艇人工计划Midwestern cities have also shown marked improvements in bad ozone days, but there are signs that this progress is plateauing as heat indexes climb. 

  • Chicago’s unhealthy ozone days have been consistent in the last three years, similar to its annual average of 19 unhealthy days from 2000 to 2014. 

  • Louisville, Kentucky has seen a drop from an average of 21 unhealthy days from 2000-2014 to just 7 in 2015, but has averaged 9 unhealthy days over the last 3 years. 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划After an average of 14 unhealthy ozone days in Detroit from 2000-2014, the city had only 3 unhealthy ozone days in 2015. But the improvements plateaued at about 7 days each year between 2016 and 2018. 

  • Memphis notched similar vast improvements in the number of unhealthy ozone days, from 25 annually on average between 2000 and 2014 to just 3 in 2015. But the numbers showed an uptick to 6 in 2016 and 8 in 2018.

NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST

Most communities across the Eastern seaboard saw a decrease in unhealthy ozone days in recent decades hold steady, although our analysis revealed a number of cities with an increase in unhealthy days over the last 4 years. The EPA has acknowledged that its air quality programs have , in which air pollution from upwind states crosses state lines and affects air quality in downwind states. These air quality improvements are also likely being supported by and recent closures of . 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Our nation’s capital improved from 21 days of unhealthy ozone on average between 2000 and 2014, but Washington, D.C. still had 5 days of unhealthy ozone levels on average over the last 4 years. 

  • In 2018, New York City reported a rise to 10 days of unhealthy ozone levels, compared to 4 days or fewer in the previous three years and compared to about 7 days on average in the 15 years prior. 

  • Providence saw improvement from nearly 11 annual days of unhealthy ozone on average from 2000-2014 to just 4 days each in 2015 through 2017, but an uptick to 8 days in 2018.

  • Philadelphia had 24 unhealthy days on average from 2000 to 2014, and while the number of unhealthy ozone days has fallen, the city experienced 45 unhealthy days over the last 4 years, the highest number among the East Coast cities on our list. Similarly, Pittsburgh improved from 25 days on average between 2000-2014 to under 10 days in each of the past 4 years, but still experienced 33 unhealthy days since 2014.

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Atlanta has experienced local unhealthy ozone days decline from 26 on average between 2000 and 2014, to fewer than 5 in 2018. Still, the city had 32 unhealthy days over the last 4 years.

  • Tampa improved from 16 high ozone days on average between 2000-2014 to just 1 unhealthy ozone day in 2015. However, unhealthy days have ticked back up to 4 days in 2018. 

Ozone Season Isn’t Just For Summer Anymore

免费幸运飞艇人工计划“Ozone seasons” are designated time periods when ground-level ozone typically reaches its highest levels and requires monitoring. Intensely sunny, hot days are most conducive for chemical reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) to create ground-level ozone. Ozone season is generally associated with summer months, but the length of the season is set to match the times of year when ozone is most likely to approach unhealthy levels, so it and tends to be longer in highly populated areas. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划, partly due to the . In cities, vast amounts of pavement and traditional asphalt or shingled roofs soak up more heat than do fields and forests; this heat is then trapped more efficiently overnight, keeping the city hotter than rural and suburban environments that have more trees and vegetation. Further, cities often have more vehicles, manufacturing, power plants, and other sources of emissions that are the precursors to ozone. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划In 2015, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , as a review showed that ozone levels that either exceeded or approached the new standard were occurring outside the previous seasons when states were required to monitor it.

免费幸运飞艇人工计划The ozone season is now monitored year-round in 8 states: Florida, Nevada, Hawaii, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, and California (save for a few counties). Many counties across southern Texas and the lower half of Louisiana also monitor for ozone 12 months a year. Only two states have ozone seasons shorter than a half year—Washington and Oregon—but both have counties with year-round ozone seasons. And the around the country that currently monitor year-long ozone seasons, generally corresponding with highly populated urban areas.

Climate Change, Stagnation, and Air Quality Are All Linked

Heat and stagnation are closely linked. from the , which incorporates upper atmospheric winds, surface winds, and precipitation to identify the number of stagnant days in a month. Looking back to 1973 when the index began, 98% of the cities analyzed show a positive correlation between summer maximum temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划Stagnation is happening more frequently. Since the began in 1973, annual stagnant days have increased in 83% of the contiguous U.S. cities analyzed. McAllen, Texas tops the list with 36 more days per year on average, followed by Los Angeles and San Francisco (where stagnation is less correlated with the heat). The largest increases have occurred across the South and West Coast as well as the East, while most of the decreases have occurred in the Mountain West. As the climate warms, stagnant days are , with up to 40 more days per year by late-century.  

When the air is stagnant, pollutants react together in the heat and sun, and high concentrations of ground-level ozone can build up. 

To protect human health under the , the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires states to adopt plans to achieve and maintain for pollutants like ozone and particle pollution. 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划EPA’s regulations have had a pronounced effect, with many communities across the United States experiencing . However, air quality is localized and very sensitive to weather, and consequently to climate change. As shown by the Climate Central analysis, ozone levels are recently plateauing or are on the rise in some localities as the climate heats up. Emissions of human-made ozone precursors have been on the decline in the United States, due to better air quality policies and cleaner technologies, and this trend is expected to continue. But as the climate continues to warm, unhealthy ozone days are projected to in some areas in the . This effect is known as the though higher levels of atmospheric water vapor (another effect of climate change) may help ameliorate the effect in some places. With projected, more air stagnation days, and increases in natural emissions from wildfire smoke, the climate penalty will  

Ozone and your Health

Even just a few unhealthy ozone days a year pose health concerns, as an are being linked to exposure to ozone and other air pollutants. According to the American Lung Association, ozone pollution is associated with asthma attacks; pneumonia; coughing and shortness of breath; cardiovascular damage; increased susceptibility to infections; and decreased lung functions. Ozone can cause developmental issues in children, and increase the risk of reproductive harm in adults. for asthma are increased due to elevated ozone levels. 

Additionally, a number of when exposed to ozone. School-age children with still-developing lungs are at increased risk for long-term damage, including developing asthma. Compared to adults, children tend to be more active outside and breathe in more air per pound of body weight, therefore taking in a “higher dose” of ozone. In times of extreme heat or cold, the effects of short-term ozone exposure have been shown to increase rates of mortality, especially for women and the elderly. 

What You Can Do 

免费幸运飞艇人工计划Protect your health: 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Enter your zip code into to find out conditions in your area. The color-coded charts provide guidance on health risks and which activities are safe for various populations. 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Avoid exercise or working outside on high ozone days.

免费幸运飞艇人工计划Prevent more ozone from forming on hot, dry days:

  • Limit your driving as much as possible—carpool, take public transportation. 

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Don’t let your engine idle.

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Electric vehicles don’t emit pollutants and have been found to be , even if their electricity is derived from fossil fuels.

  • Refrain from barbecuing or using your fire pit.

  • Postpone any painting projects unless the paints are VOC-free. Solvent gases from many paints include VOCs that can contribute to ground-level ozone formation. 

  • Fuel your vehicle in the early morning or later evening, since sunlight triggers ozone formation.

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划Mow your lawn late in the evening or if possible, use electric lawn equipment instead of gasoline-powered equipment.

METHODOLOGY

Ozone Analysis:
免费幸运飞艇人工计划 Climate Central analyzed daily ozone data for the counties of 244 cities from 2000-2018, as obtained from the. Annual unhealthy ozone days were calculated for each county as well as a 2000-2014 annual average. An “unhealthy” ozone day is defined as one where the 8-hour max exceeds the most current NAAQS standard of 0.070 ppm (equivalent to an AQI value greater than 100). To highlight areas with an ozone problem, locations were identified that had either:

  • A large number of ozone days over the past four years in terms of pure count (greater than 20 days over the past four years)

  • 免费幸运飞艇人工计划An increase in recent years (a continuous increase in days over at least 3 of the past 4 years)

  • More ozone days in a single recent year (2015-2018) than their 2000-2014 average

Stagnation Analysis:
from the , calculating annual trends since the dataset began in 1973. Correlation plots were created using annual average summer (June, July, and August) maximum temperature data obtained from the and summer stagnation data from NOAA/NCEI. Although winter stagnation can greatly reduce the air quality in places like Salt Lake City, it is not fundamentally driven by increasing hot days which is the focus of this Climate Central analysis.